Would a Hindu nationalist election victory threaten India's religious minorities?

In 2002, after religious riots in the Indian state of Gujarat led to the deaths of 1,000 people, mainly Muslims, the state’s chief minister made a speech. In it, he spoke against setting up relief camps for the thousands of Muslims who had fled their homes. He said that such camps would be “child making factories”, referring to polygamy and high birthrates in the Muslim community. “There is a need to teach a lesson to those people who are expanding their population.”

The chief minister was Narendra Modi, currently frontrunner in the national election taking place in India over the course of six weeks. The speech – as well as Modi’s alleged role in the riots that preceded it – reinforced the chief minister’s reputation as a Hindu nationalist hard-liner. The association with the deadly riots has been hard to shake. In 2005, the US denied Modi a visa on the basis of his involvement.

After becoming the prime ministerial candidate for the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Modi has attempted to rebrand himself and depart from religious politics. “I am known to be a Hindu nationalist leader,” he said in one of his first speeches after gaining the nomination. “But my real thought is toilets first, temples later.” He has stressed growth and industrialization in Gujarat under his leadership, saying that India’s economy will flourish if he is elected.

The message seems to be hitting home with voters, with the BJP charging ahead of the Congress Party (which has governed since 2004). A recent survey by the Pew Research Centre found that 63 per cent of respondents want a BJP-led government, while just 19 per cent back Congress.

Modi speaks a macho nationalist language that resonates with India’s young men, who – given a large, disproportionately male youth bulge – make up a significant proportion of the electorate. But critics are still concerned about his suitability to govern India, a diverse country founded on the principle of secularism. Hindus make up 80 per cent of the population, Muslims 13 per cent, and Christians around 2.5 per cent. Among these religious minorities, anxiety about a BJP government runs high.

Last week, US lawmakers voiced concern about the future of India’s religious minorities if Modi is elected. The last time the BJP led a national government was 1998-2004, and in 2002 India’s religious freedom was designated a particular cause for concern by the US State Department. “Many religious minority communities feel that religious freedom will be jeopardized if the BJP wins and the Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi becomes prime minister,” said Katrina Lantos Swett, vice-chair of the US Commission on International Religious Freedom. Modi’s supporters have dismissed these concerns as an attempt by America to influence elections.

Since the BJP will get hardly any votes from Muslims, appealing to pan-Hindu identity is vital to its eventual electoral dominance. Modi is avoiding religious rhetoric, but political observers say that he is encouraging other party members to mobilise along religious lines. Last week, a video was leaked of BJP general secretary, Amit Shah, speaking at a private meeting in Utter Pradesh, a critical state that sends 80 representatives to the lower house. “This election is the election of honour and revenge,” he told Hindus in a district where 60 people died in religious clashes in September. “This is the time to avenge. A man can sleep hungry but not humiliated. This is the time to take revenge by voting for Modi.”

There are some public warning signs too. BJP’s manifesto pledges to build a Hindu temple at Ayodhya, the site where deadly interreligious violence was sparked in 1992 after a mosque was destroyed. This is a provocative move hardly in keeping with the stated aim of departing from sectarian politics. Modi is personally associated with the violence in Gujarat, but the BJP has links to radical Hindu groups such as Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and Vishwa Hindu Parishad, which have targeted Christians as well as Muslims.

As the votes continue and a victory for Modi looks likely, India’s religious minorities must simply hope that his party will not make good on its promise to “take revenge”.