This article appears in the Witness section of the Autumn 2016 issue of the New Humanist, along with other pieces examining the impact of the Brexit vote. Subscribe today.

The results came in piecemeal: blue to leave, yellow to remain. Jutting from the top of the map, in monochrome yellow, was Scotland. A majority of voters in every council area north of the border voted to remain in the EU. For those who live there it came as no surprise. Only days earlier, all five leaders from the major political parties had come together on the front page of the Daily Record to call upon the Scottish to vote Remain: “an unprecedented display of unity”, said the paper.

The reasons for this divergence in attitudes are not clear cut: in 1975, when the first EU referendum was held, Scotland was actually more sceptical of the European project than either England or Wales. But the meteoric rise of the Scottish National Party (SNP), which switched policy from anti- to pro-Europe in the 1980s, is a factor, as is the synonymy of the Leave campaign with the Conservative Party and UKIP, both toxic with the Scottish electorate.

To those who support independence, it was hailed as a proof of their country’s distinct political identity. To those who voted in favour of both unions – British and European – it has been the source of horror and doubt. And to the first minister Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP, it represented the “significant and material change” mooted in their manifesto as basis for a second referendum. A second vote was now “highly likely”, she confirmed, hours after the result.

But whether a second vote on independence will take place – and whether the SNP would prevail this time – remains uncertain. The crucial question of whether an independent Scotland might retain its EU membership, or be forced to reapply, is more opaque than ever. Equally, business will be keen to see an end to the political and economic uncertainty that has hit Scotland on two fronts.

Polling suggests a hesitant response from the Scottish public: despite a small boost of support for independence, Scotland would still vote to stay in the UK if a referendum was held tomorrow. The largest bloc, in a recent YouGov poll, say they want to wait for details of the UK’s Brexit deal to be clarified before a repeat of the 2014 ballot. Questioned directly about the significance of access to the single market – would they prefer living in a UK without, or an independent Scotland with? – more than a quarter admitted that they did not know.

Despite the shock of the Brexit vote, a forced Scottish withdrawal from Europe may not be the death knell for the UK it was anticipated to be. Still, as the Brexit vote demonstrated, the polls might not be reliable.